Interesting. AIImpacts repeated their 2022 survey of nearly 3K researchers "who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues". Rodney Brook's Generative AI Shaping The Future Keynote has much to say about the need for care when considering AI predictions. However, I found this point interesting: there seems to be quickening optimism among the survey subjects over the last year.
The surveyed now say that a major benchmark may be achievable 13 years sooner than they thought one year ago. Whether this change is the product of wisdom, insight, FOMO, or FOBAWTPALSL (a tongue-in-cheek reference to Rodney Brook's presentation), time will tell.
https://aiimpacts.org/
https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf